Cassandra's World III
The Overlook
By Tom Clavin
“The Overlook” appears every Thursday at tomclavin.substack.com. An overlook is a place from which one can see in several if not all directions, including where one has been and where one is going. If you enjoy the column, please "like" it and let me know what you think by commenting (check out previous ones while you're at it). Likes, comments, and shares help with author “discoverability” on Substack.com, and all support is appreciated. Don't forget to hit the ‘Subscribe’ button – it’s free!
Like many people, for me the effects of a changing climate can seem remote. I don’t get too worked up about drought in India or a region in Egypt which usually sees less than an inch of rain annually now experiencing such an unusually high amount of rain that killer scorpions are being flooded out of their homes and are taking their dismay out on the surrounding, petrified population.
But without a doubt, those effects will become more up close and personal for all of us, everywhere. This was impressed upon me this past Saturday, November 13, when a powerful storm pummeled Long Island with rain and hail and produced not one but six tornados. One of them touched down in Shirley, which is less than 10 minutes from where my daughter, her husband, any my soon-to-be-born granddaughter, Cassandra May, live.
Last week’s installment focused on climate change and heat. Extending our reach, let’s talk about wind and water. A scientific fact is that a warming planet means more powerful storms. In the oceans, these will be hurricanes, cyclones, and typhoons. Interior areas, such as our Midwest, will likely be victimized by more frequent and intense storms that produce especially destructive tornados.
From the vantage point of mid-Autumn it may be difficult to look back at last winter. Let us recall the continent-spanning storms that triggered blackouts in Texas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, and other states. It took Texas weeks to recuperate and its fragile power grid will be tested again this winter. One impact of those huge storms was one-third of the oil production in the U.S. stopped in its tracks. Drinking-water systems were broken. Roadways and bridges caved in.
This situation is not one we will look back on as an aberration. According to Alice Hill, who served as a climate-risk planner on the National Security Council, “We are colliding with a future of extremes. We base all our choices about risk management on what’s occurred in the past, and that is no longer a safe guide.”
The combination of ice caps melting at alarming rates and uber-storms will mean much too much water in many areas. One impact is that in some areas, when floods overwhelm barriers, coal ash, the toxic residue produced by coal-burning plants, spills into rivers. Another is just over a year ago, when a storm dumped more than two inches on Washington in less than 75 minutes, raw sewage surged into hundreds of homes.
To help combat some of the consequences of climate change, the passage of the infrastructure bill this month is good news. Thousands of communities across the U.S. will benefit. However, for other communities, it is already too late. No matter how much the flood of money, the flood of water is stronger.
The New York Times reported recently that “not every community can be protected. Some areas – particularly in some coastal zones, but also inland along rivers and other areas where flooding is worsening – can’t successfully be defended no matter how much money the government might be willing to throw into fortifications, drainage upgrades or other improvements. Deciding which areas should be abandoned, and when, is one of the most urgent and difficult challenges facing the U.S. The decision is deeply emotional because it involves uprooting lives and destroying communities. The financial consequences are also sweeping, since property values are likely to plummet, along with the life savings of people who live there.”
If we’re going to look anywhere at what storms and flooding can do, it may as well be New York City. To those who thought what happened during Hurricane Sandy was a once-in-a-century event, what happened because of Hurricane Ida almost three months ago indicates such impacts will become more common or centuries are getting a lot shorter.
The remnants of Ida – not even a direct hit -- unloaded a historic and catastrophic deluge on New York City and the surrounding region and was linked to at least 41 deaths in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut. At least 11 of those deaths in New York were people who lived in basement apartments that simply filled with so much water so fast that people could not escape and drowned in their own homes. Also, the Times reported, “Rain poured down in furious torrents, turning the subway system into a kind of flume ride,” adding that the city “is particularly vulnerable to flooding. Three-fourths of the city is covered by impervious surfaces like asphalt, which means runoff is channeled into streets and sewers rather than being absorbed by the ground.”
But it’s going to get more difficult to escape storms and flooding anywhere. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. That is creating rainstorms that are more intense and producing vastly more rainfall in shorter periods of time, causing catastrophic flooding.
Sarah Kaufman of the Rudin Center for Transportation at New York University wondered, “How can we get ready for the next storm, which was supposed to be 100 years away, but could happen tomorrow?”
And tomorrow, and tomorrow: Climate scientists predict that by 2040, 41 percent of the global population will be exposed to the risk of being overwhelmed by water from the one-two punch of storms and rising seas.
Those of you living in coastal areas (as I do), your days are numbered – and filled with debts. Today’s oceanfront homes will be tomorrow’s waterlogged debris. Rising water levels and intensifying storms will cause more erosion as greater swaths of sand and rock are gouged out of the shorelines. Nearby communities will be faced with escalating bills to try to maintain tourism and fishing and other water-related industries. In Avon, North Carolina, the town board was presented with a proposal of spending $11 million to stop its main road from washing away – meaning residents’ property taxes will increase by 50 percent.
Ironically, as the polar caps continue to melt, there will be too much water (saltwater) and not enough water (fresh water). This will not only affect drinking supplies but water needed for agriculture.
Speaking of which: Next week, the increasing global threats of hunger and disease linked to climate change . . . and millions of people on the move.
Tom Clavin is the bestselling author/co-author of 18 books, including Tombstone, Blood and Treasure (with Bob Drury), and Lightning Down: A World War II Story of Survival, just published by St. Martin’s Press. To purchase a copy, please go to your local bookstore or to Bookshop.org, Amazon.com, or BN.com.